I went 5-6 ATS last week, dropping to under .500 ATS for the season.
The good: choosing Tennessee to cover in Pitt. The Bad: Picking Alabama to rout Texas. The ugly: choosing A&M to beat app status.
Here are this week’s guesses.
(All point spreads are from BetMGM, click here for live odds, all Eastern kickoff times.)
Florida State (-3) at Louisville, Friday, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN)
The Seminoles had a bye week to refocus after a great road win over LSU and prepare to handle an even better runner than Jayden Daniels in Malik Cunningham. Expect FSU to give Louisville enough trouble with Jared Verse and Co. under a lot of pressure.
FSU 27, Louisville 24
Take: Florida State -3
Georgia No. 1 (-24.5) at South Carolina, noon (ESPN)
That’s a big number for an SEC team to cover on the road. Spencer Rattler is off to a shaky start (2 TDs, 3 INTs). My hunch is he’ll make a few plays and the Gamecocks defense will be pretty tight.
Georgia 34, South Carolina 14
Take: South Carolina +24.5
No. 6 Oklahoma (-10.5) at Nebraska, noon (Fox)
I expect the Huskers to respond well to the coaching change. Mickey Joseph will bring a little more organization, and some of the pressure around the program will have dissipated. It wouldn’t shock me if the Huskers put it all together.
Oklahoma 35, Nebraska 34
Take: Nebraska +10.5
No. 12 BYU at No. 25 Oregon (-3.5), 3:30 p.m. (Fox)
The Cougars looked good against Baylor and can handle a tough road environment. I think the Ducks are still figuring things out and trying to find an identity.
BYU 35, Oregon 30
Take: BYU +3.5
No. 22 Penn State (-3) at Auburn, 3:30 p.m. (CBS)
The Tigers have enough athletes who can really run to slow down the Nittany Lions’ impressive lineup of young fullbacks, but I think defensive coordinator Manny Diaz and a good PSU secondary will cause some big mistakes from the quarterback. ‘Auburn TJ Finley, who has a touchdown pass and three picks so far.
Penn State 20, Auburn 13
Take: Penn State -3
Mississippi State (-2.5) at LSU, 6 p.m. (ESPN)
It’s unusual to see the Tigers as a home underdog against an unranked team, but here we are. I think Mississippi State has a more defined identity right now than LSU, and I expect Will Rogers to keep the Tigers on their heels. He’s playing with a ton of confidence right now.
Mississippi State 34, LSU 27
Take: Mississippi State -2.5
Texas Tech at No. 16 NC State (-10), 7 p.m. (ESPN2)
I like what I’ve seen of young Texas Tech quarterback Donovan Smith so far, but NC State has a top-15 pass defense. I think the Wolfpack will give him headaches in a tough spot for the young QB.
North Carolina State 31, Texas Tech 24
Take: Texas Technology +10
No. 11 Michigan State at Washington (-3.5), 7:30 p.m. (ABC)
It looks like a coming out party for Kalen DeBoer. He is doing it in Washington. Husky Stadium can get noisy, and former Indiana quarterback Michael Penix Jr. plays very well in that system. If the Huskies can protect him well enough, I think they’ll narrowly win against a very well-drilled, well-balanced team.
Washington 24, Michigan State 23
Take: Michigan State +3.5
This week’s upset special: SMU at Maryland (-3), 7:30 p.m. (FS1)
Tanner Mordecai is looking good so far, and the Terps are a bit banged up in the secondary. I think they’re going to miss Tarheeb Still’s remarkable corner against the Mustangs a lot.
EMS 40, Maryland 35
Take: EMS +3
(Photo: Stephen Brashear/USA Today)