US CPI report coming up on Tuesday, 13 September 2022 – preview

The August US inflation report is due on Tuesday:

  • This snapshot of the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.
  • The times in the leftmost column are GMT.
  • The numbers in the rightmost column are the “previous” result (previous month/quarter, as applicable). The number in the column next to that, where is a number, is the expected consensus median.

Via Scotia, in summary:

  • Tuesday’s CPI numbers…may further indicate whether the FOMC is up 75bps or 50bps on Sept. 21, but there’s a high bar on whether they matter.
  • I say high bar because when given the option to rely on market prices for a 75 basis point move, Chairman Powell let it drop during his appearance at a Cato Institute event. Several of his FOMC colleagues seemed to be behaving the same way.
  • It would likely take a big downside failure in core CPI to knock the Fed off course and even that isn’t assured.
  • It is the annualized reading of the core CPI month-over-month that matters more than the year-over-year rate and thus an estimated reading of 6.3% m/m SAAR in the Core CPI would likely motivate the FOMC to believe that core inflation continues to run hot with broad pressures.
  • One of the entries in the call is the Cleveland Fed’s CPI “nowcasts.” … They have been a useful but not infallible source of input into estimates. Still, the underlying inflation signal points to a warm reading that should cause markets to look through the global influences stemming from energy prices.

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